Masopher's Mind

My recent attention has turned to strategic matters in the Afghan region particularly regarding the British armed forces. A lot of blame has been laid on the cheapness of the UK government for not building gundams for soldiers in battle but new analysis out of Chatham House suggests that bureucratic infighting between DFID, FCO and MOD created an environment where commanders of British boys were sent to the war torn country without realistic, congruous or sustainable objectives. Some commanders fell prey to the temptation of, as a senior officer quotes, “having their private battle and want(ing) to prove to themselves that they can so it.”

Far away from home and with plenty of enemies and news-y but unsustainable objectives, commanders felt compelled by personal ambition to get caught up in highly “kinetic” situations where people get hurt and killed! The risk vs reward calculation is this: win a battle make progress up a steep bureaucratic ladder, lose men and blame the government for it’s paucity and inability to keep up with the Americans.

Not that the Americans are any safer mind you, IEDs have quickly become a standard in insurgency. In Afghanistan a country filled with unexploded ordenance and Soviet era arms caches, a trip to Iran for old rockets is not even necessary.

While many of Europe’s soldiers camping in Afghanistan, hunker down to “let the yanks do their job”, the British have been needlessly and actively knocking down hornets nests of their own. Millions of bullets and billions of dollars have been used to turn what could have been a camping trip to shore up a government and a show of solidarity to a people into a painful excercise of “how many Afghans can be shot before one treads on a mine?”

The Brits are now lead by (the nose perhaps) the counter insurgency Sven Gali, General Stanley McCrystal. Instead of setting up shop in remote locations and sallying forth with sabres rattling all the way, an “inkblot” method is being employed. The troops will protect a large population center. They support the native bureaucracy as it grows until native forces are able to do the job. Influence will grow naturally as zones of security from central points and both army and locals will learn from and aid each other.

I appreciate that sometimes diplomacy doesn’t work, fighting has to be done. British commanders have showed great tactical competence with some idea of an overarching strategy, but as I’ve heard Lieutenant General Sir Richard Shirreff say, “Amateurs study strategy, professionals study logistics”.

In early 2010 Russia and NATO badboy France tentatively agreed a deal where an amphibious assault ship made in France would be sold to the Russian Navy. The ship and the ability to make copies of the ship, (transfer of technology) was agreed to be sold in the background of France and Europe’s continued frustration in selling military technology to a market saturated by American products. America is literally a no fly zone for EADS planes and France is having a hell of a time getting countries like Kuwait and Brazil to accept their perfectly good contender, the Raphael, which is going up against the faithful but old American F-18 Super Hornet. Because the French Government is so intimately tied to its arms industry this would be a great case of real politik: If we can’t sell to the Americans and they keep nicking our other customers then we’ll sell to the Russians!

This represented the first time that a NATO country would sell military technology to NATOs natural enemy. Later the deal hit a few snags where France wanted to water down the product and Russia wanted a fully operational weapons platform.

France has had a very close relationship with Russia even before Communism. France and Russia had very strong pacts defending themselves against Germany which was the global threat of the 19^th and 20^th Century. When Communism rose and Lenin Stalin and Trotsky were fighting against Russian imperialism, France served as a natural escape for much of the Romonov aristocracy. There they stayed in exile until this day, though some have returned meekly to Russia. During Germany’s second bout of belligerence Jews fled to Russia and France from Germany and despite the bad conditions for Semites in these countries they managed to establish themselves.

France has always cast a suspicious eye on the United States, even while American boys were dying to liberate it from the Germans. In my readings I think General DeGaulle suspected that America had reverse-imperialist intentions and hoped to colonize France! Whether this will ever be verified is moot, the Anglo-American connection has always been a sore spot. During the cold war too, France was antagonistic to NATO and was known for reaching out to Moscow.  With an eye to forming a third pole in the polarizing world, Charles De Gaulle left the NATO alliance in 1966 and managed to build his own nuclear power. France has now become a first class supplier of nuclear energy and sovereign owner of its own stockpile, something that Britain failed to do. When the Berlin wall and Iron Curtain fell, France rebuilt its ties with East Germany, and with Moscow. During the Georgia war of 2008, it was Sarkozy and France that stepped in and mediated between the arrogant Georgians and surly Russians. The invasion of Iraq was again, another place where Russia, France and Germany stood off against American intentions and English acquiescence. Together, France and Germany have risen as the true drivers of the EUs success while Britain limps behind, barely out of recession and only able to supply spies and tabloid headlines to this remarkable political experiment.

The laissez-faire, liberal and leftist lean of “le France” compels it into a natural embrace with a very leftist Russia. France’s revolutions and thinking produced many hard left socialist regimes including the one that existed in Moscow.

Will France sell a fully functional Mistral to Russia? I see no reason why not.

So there is this “quartet”, the USA, Europe, Russia and the rest of the world(The UN) and they have gotten together in Russia to decide what to do about Israel. Lately Israel’s Likud coalition government has all but given the finger to the EU and USA.

The UN and Russia are quite concerned about this because Israel seemed to have come so far until it decided to fuck up the Gaza strip, attack the UN and basically murder a lot of Palestinians in the name of political gains. Israel has flaunted its friendships by travelling to non threatening Arab states using European passports to assassinate Israel’s enemies. Israel has actively broken down relationships with Turkey and Syria. Israel has officially called American president an anti-Semite. Israel has allowed its right wing elements to continue Zionist expansion into the few remaining Palestinian enclaves left for the landless people. Israel has turned sites revered by Jewish and other religions into Jew only sites.

Benjamin Netanyahu has clearly lost control of his rightist elements and lost control of his government. While the Palestinian authority and even moderate elements of Hamas have tried to play ball, Israel has somehow lost its way and set the peace process back considerably. Proximity talks were what used to happen back when Yassar Arafat was still wiring his own bombs…this is undoubtedly a retrograde progression.

Can anyone tell Israel what to do? It has flaunted and bought its way out of UN resolutions, it has threatened the region with nuclear and biological war it is now thumbing its nose at its strongest supporter in a way not seen since the 1976 Suez Canal crisis. Israel has faced off and won against many foes since its very inception. Going to war with whomever, Lebanon, Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Turkey, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen threatening others as it pleases, proliferating nuclear technology: this country is a proven fighter so I don’t see how a hypocritical meeting in Moscow and empty tut-tutting is going to show Israel that wrong is wrong. Sanctions are needed and they are needed now. As usual anything less than complete asskissing will be seen as anti-Semitism and the bones of the victims of Germany’s holocaust will be trotted out to remind us what happens to Jews when people stop kissing their ass. But maybe we need to get over our irrational fear of ourselves and let’s just censure a country that does wrong.