Masopher's Mind

Empire; Experiment; Great Power; BRIC; Threat: there is only one country that is a close neighbour to three continents. Russia stretches from Europe, across Asia and over to North America. Covering one ninth of the Earth’s land surface, Russia hosts a massive demographic and possesses untold wealth in the way of diamonds, water, oil and people. Its wealthy language and culture has given birth to beautiful literature and ambitious philosophy. Unfortunately something that big, that cold and that covered in red has a way of implying a palpable menace by just being there (a bit like Santa Claus).

In Europe, independent splinters of the old Soviet Union like Georgia, Ukraine and Poland constantly feel the presence of Russian influence. Early 2010 Ukraine withdrew from NATO candidacy much to the West’s dismay. Further a field Britain finds itself regularly scrambling fighters to escort Russian Nuclear bombers out of British aerospace.

In Asia, Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan feel the shadow of the Soviet Union as they live in the shadow of Russia. The first is in decades old civil war and has endured foreign invasions while the second went through a violent coup in mid 2010 the third despite being president of the OSCE has come under scrutiny for its lack of transparency and lack of democracy.

In the Americas, the United States tries to stem the tide of nuclear technology that could come from its neighbour across the Bering Strait. The US wearily and warily ratchets down the economically draining nuclear arms race while hoping and praying that Russia’s vast borders don’t see a few pounds of loose radioactive material slip through into the hands of terrorists.

While the British and Americans seem to be waning into history, Russia faces prospects of continued renewal as a peer of Brazil, India and China. Should Russia succeed in staking its claim on the North Pole or finding still more petroleum for the worlds thirst, then its mere existence will make it an equal to the growing new powers.

Russia’s size and dogged resilience made it impossible for Napoleon and Hitler to conquer. In the new millennium, democracy too seemed to get stuck in the slog towards Moscow or worse yet, democracy clipped its wings trying to land in heavy fog. The fights from Russian secret services and military are not just against the Chechnyans or Dagestan but against free speech and parts of the internet. As Russia starts another chapter in its history, it is very hard to sympathize with the country that has consistently found itself on the wrong end of the narrative. Ironically Russia probably doesn’t need much sympathy. It has survived much and shows that across the ages, whenever it seems to stall it can simply “restart”.

Here’s a bit about me colouring in some of the details of my life so far:

Being raised as a child of an ex-patriot in a former British, slave colony has given me a unique perspective on the world. Life is not black and white, even when that’s all people seem to be focused on. I was raised in the turbulent 80’s when American led democracy faced off against Russian led Communism. The Caribbean was very close to Casto’s Cuba, and was one of the arena’s where the two ideologies competed. I was born into a world where Europe was sharply divided, revolutionary Islam was being propagated and the mighty Red Army was at war with tribes in an unknown country. The world was so polarized that I don’t remember many problems that couldn’t be traced back to either Capitalists or Communists. Only during the 90’s did I start to recognize issues that were seemingly always there: poverty, drugs, crime, corruption, human rights abuses. In high school I became involved in a Jesuit outreach programme where we visited prisons, alms houses and orphanages bringing aid and comfort to those in need. I choose psychology and law in University because I wanted to address and rectify the root causes of human suffering; depressed and turbulent social conditions, broken families, access to cheap, addictive drugs, marginalization, anomie and violent surroundings. During my first degree I was first introduced to empirical research and statistics. With these courses my affinity for numbers and my interest in people seemed to synchronize. Legal research at the Norman Manley Law School, using the internet and debating both sides of complex social and criminal issues also helped ignited a spark in me and by the time I graduated I already knew my next steps. I researched the premier institutions for Master’s Degrees in forensic psychology and chose Marymount University in Arlington, Virginia. Here I re-upped my knowledge in statistical analysis techniques, and delved deeper into the psychology and law of criminal behaviour.

My first real experience in researching criminal behaviour and handling human rights was working with Washington DC’s detainees during my tenure at DC Prisoners Legal Services. Here, I used a mixture of face to face interviews, letter writing, using relevant federal and national databases as well as liaising with various professional bodies, courts and libraries for assistance with cases. My caseload was over a dozen incarcerated individuals from the federal penitentiaries in the central, south eastern and south central regions of the Bureau of Prisons. Besides working with individuals’ problems, I assisted attorneys working on institutional issues such as overcrowding and lack of proportionate prison officer coverage in large prisoner populations. My research and interviews helped to provide DC councilmember at large Philip Medelson with vital information about what was happening on-the-ground in the two Washington DC jails.

As a researcher at YouGov, I manage research and analysis of large projects for commercial, NGO and governmental bodies. This involves being able to communicate with various stakeholders and with the field teams to gather, aggregate and report on a wide variety of interests; focusing on household finance, media consumption and green issues. This involves consulting with our clients in designing the research and then presenting the results at the end. Between these two bookend events, I am actively involved in preparing the research, ensuring the field team collect a representative sample and then manipulating the data to determine what findings can be taken from the research. With some of my tracking studies, (for example the Household Finance Index released by MARKIT) it is important to ensure that changes in the data are consistent with expected regressions and to flag up through additional research why the data may be changing. Once we are happy with the results, we prepare our presentations and then use mailing lists and press releases to disseminate updates, changes and findings.

When I am not working, I participate at Chatham House, asking questions of incredibly insightful professionals like Zbigniew Brzezinskibri, Stanley McCrystal, Paddy Ashdown as well as powerful politicians, David Cameron, Ming Campbell and Pervez Musharraf, to name a few. I also like to travel and meet men and women of less public stature; Maday in Indonesia, Hakim in Egypt, Dominic in the Caribbean, Matt in Washington DC, Nicolas in France. This how I learn about the world and give colour to my analysis of it.

When I last heard Pervez Musharraf, he ranted (as many Pakistanis do) about Indian involvement in Afghanistan, hinting strongly at the hidden RAW/ISI war being fought. The Indian intelligence agency and the Pakistani intelligence agency are currently fighting over control and influence of their neighbour.

Several years ago, Kabul Afghanis began reaching out to the large wealthy India asking them for support in military matters. India welcomed and returned this interest because India is looking to increase its strategic depth in the region not only having a rear guard in its Pakistan problem but increase its trade partnerships with Muslim countries. Since then, Indians in New Deli and Kabul have come under attack in what may be related reprisals from Pakistan’s central powers and military.

In October 2009 the Indian embassy came under attack from supposed Taliban forces. At that time is was assumed that it might have been the local Afghan Taliban carrying out regular insurgency strikes. This attack was the second such attack in just over a year.

In the early months of 2010, there have been several attacks in Kabul targeting Indian embassies and personnel. The latest attack in Kabul which killed several Indians and civilians indicates that these attacks are perhaps NOT from the indigenous Afghan Pashtun but from Pakistani Pashtun bent on maintaining their hegemony over their wartorn neighbour. Indeed I was present during a recent talk at a London University  when several Afghani (though many of them were Hazara and Tajik) outright accused Pakistan of not only being the perpetrator of attacks against Indian assets but on American assets as well!

The narrative that we all go by is that Afghanistan Taliban are sheltered by their Pakistani relatives and are hiding in Western Pakistan but more and more we hear that Pakistanis are very much involved in the logistics and organization of the attacks on Western troops and civilians. Even with the recent spate of findings and killings in Pakistan of Afghani Taliban Leaders based in the Pakistani city of Qetta (the Qetta Shurah) this very stage managed set of events could only be a cynical betrayal of some of the big names so that Pakistan can prove itself while continuing its strongly anti-Indian, anti-Western policies. Zardari, a money pilfering politician, went to the west in 2008 demanding money for cooperation and got some (which was converted to military aid) then Musharraf a military man went west early 2010 demanding military assets for turning over some Taliban and he also got some (which the military then proudly tested for their Indian counterparts to see).

It is plain that Pakistan’s government is weak and impotent outside of Islamabad and Lahore if so far and it is equally plain that both Afghanis and Pakistanis civilians are quick to point towards and over the border they share when casting the blame. What is becoming clear is that Pakistan’s military seems hell bent on leveraging as much of Pakistan’s wealth and Afghanistan’s poverty against competing with a quickly rising India which has more on its mind than the chaotic Islamic society to its west. India in my estimation does not load up its western regions with military hardware to threaten Pakistan’s existence, it does so that when nuclear enabled Pakistan finally collapses under the weight of its own ego the large and secular democratic nation will be able to handle the massive humanitarian and military fallout.