Afghanistan’s publicity campaign has suffered some setbacks lately. Kharzai seems to have “gone rogue”, yapping off of his mouth about the elections he stole and is the beneficiary of, regional governors are starting to make the same noises that lead to why there has been so much failure over the past 9 years, Pakistan is playing games, Kyber pass is being overrun the Kyrgyzstan supply base is looking  depressing, Russia is making fun of NATOs anti drug efforts and to cap it all off some of our boys got trigger happy with a minibus. Same shit different day?

You did bad, guys you are living with fear and fear makes you make mistakes. Without fear you would have seen that it was a harmless bus full of women. Yes we make enemies by killing friends but we also strengthen our original enemies including the ones back home pretending that they are our friends. These people are just waiting to shit all over you for the slightest error you make.

Anyway, here’s an Op Ed from Michael E. O’Hanlon of Brookings…I got some shit of my own to sort out but I’ll be posting here again real soon.

This essential truth — codified in the U.S. military’s 2006 counterinsurgency manual and confirmed by the annals of history — is that you create new enemies faster than you eliminate existing ones when you unintentionally kill innocents.


Army Gen. David Petraeus understands it. He and Marine Gen. James Amos wrote the counterinsurgency guide that emphasizes this key point. And Petraeus put it into effect in Iraq.

Army Gen. Stanley McChrystal understands it, too.

He has directed his troops in Afghanistan not to request airpower support — except when under direct attack or when targets can be clearly identified as enemy combatants.

But the U.S. military acquisition system continues to overlook this basic reality. Especially in regard to one key capability that could make a world of difference in Afghanistan today: nonlethal weaponry.

In recent days, NATO troops have again been accused of using lethal firepower to incapacitate a vehicle that ignored their signals to stop. It was, however, allegedly carrying only innocent civilians, not combatants.

The truth behind this incident is still unclear. But NATO investigators have found few, if any, vehicles rigged with explosives among those shot at and rendered immobile by coalition forces over the past year.

In other words, we usually fire on vehicles that do not pose any real threat to our forces or to Afghan civilians.

Soldiers might be better off first shooting out the tires or the engine block. But given how limited time is once an approaching vehicle starts to look dangerous, the driver behind the windshield usually offers an easier target.

Based on the movement of vehicles, as well as the jittery fingers of soldiers in danger and the properties of automatic weapons, other people in the vehicle are often shot as well.

This is not to criticize troops who do the shooting. In most cases, they undoubtedly feel in mortal peril from vehicles that, in fact, have ignored warnings. These vehicles could well harbor people with malevolent intentions.

That NATO soldier on patrol is probably already jumpy because of the threat of unseen, yet lethal, roadside bombs. Far be it from a civilian, sitting in a comfortable Washington office, to criticize a soldier for making split-second decisions to use force when seeing what looks like an acute threat.

But if that soldier has only lethal options, it is natural that the soldier will use them. Sometimes, it might well be a soldier’s tactical mistake, but, more often, it is a natural and reasonable human reaction to being in danger.

Commanders like Petraeus, McChrystal and Army Gen. Raymond Odierno, in Iraq, have coached their troops on withholding fire in many situations — as they should. But it is not realistic to expect this to apply in every situation.

We owe our troops better choices.

In the mid-1990s, the Defense Department created the Joint Non-Lethal Weapons Program, under the U.S. Marine Corps, as well as decision directive 3000.3, to underscore the use and importance of nonlethal weaponry on the modern battlefield.

The experiences of U.S. forces in Somalia, among other areas, provided much of the impetus for this.

But for the next decade, the nonlethal weaponry effort was funded at a paltry $20 million to $40 million a year, barely enough to carry out fledgling R&D and certainly not enough to buy any material in significant quantities.

A 2004 Council on Foreign Relations task force called for increasing this budget. It is now closer to $150 million a year.

But compare that to $100 billion a year in total war costs; $80 billion a year in total Pentagon research, development, test and evaluation money; and $5 billion a year in spending for vehicles and other technologies to counter roadside bombs.

This $150 million is not even enough for a vigorous research program, much less a crash effort at fielding promising technologies. Which is what these circumstances warrant.

In this day and age, it should be possible to stop suspicious vehicles without killing the drivers. Modern technology should be able to provide ways to do this. Yet we haven’t solved the riddle.

An elegant solution could be “radio frequency” weapons that can fry the electronics of the vehicles.

But it is not clear that these are ready for widespread use with infantry troops. Big power requirements mean that the systems are still large and unwieldy.

Some existing nonlethal technologies — such as netting, tire spikes, acoustic weapons and sticky foams — are better for controlling mobs on foot, or impeding vehicles at checkpoints, than for an unexpected incident with an approaching vehicle at an unanticipated location.

We do not yet know what the right solution could be.

Better tire spike technologies that could span greater ranges and incapacitate vehicles over an appreciable diameter may be one possible solution.

More powerful acoustic weapons or flash weapons that could be fired at a vehicle to create a dazzling and distracting light might be other choices. It is now hard to say.

What is clear, however, is that spending $150 million a year to address this problem is woefully inadequate.

Despite McChrystal’s remarkable personal commitment to this, we are still seeing far too many cases of inadvertent killings of innocents in Afghanistan.

These cases stoke up anger among the population, poison dialogue with the Afghan government and put the entire mission’s success at risk.

It is late in the game to take this problem seriously, but it is not too late.

Rather than ask our troops to make a choice between being at risk and taking actions that could kill innocent Afghans and set back the war effort, we should give them the tools they need to do their job.

Posted in Philosophy, Politics-Middle East at April 25th, 2010. No Comments / Email This Post Email This Post .

Here’s a bit about me colouring in some of the details of my life so far:

Being raised as a child of an ex-patriot in a former British, slave colony has given me a unique perspective on the world. Life is not black and white, even when that’s all people seem to be focused on. I was raised in the turbulent 80’s when American led democracy faced off against Russian led Communism. The Caribbean was very close to Casto’s Cuba, and was one of the arena’s where the two ideologies competed. I was born into a world where Europe was sharply divided, revolutionary Islam was being propagated and the mighty Red Army was at war with tribes in an unknown country. The world was so polarized that I don’t remember many problems that couldn’t be traced back to either Capitalists or Communists. Only during the 90’s did I start to recognize issues that were seemingly always there: poverty, drugs, crime, corruption, human rights abuses. In high school I became involved in a Jesuit outreach programme where we visited prisons, alms houses and orphanages bringing aid and comfort to those in need. I choose psychology and law in University because I wanted to address and rectify the root causes of human suffering; depressed and turbulent social conditions, broken families, access to cheap, addictive drugs, marginalization, anomie and violent surroundings. During my first degree I was first introduced to empirical research and statistics. With these courses my affinity for numbers and my interest in people seemed to synchronize. Legal research at the Norman Manley Law School, using the internet and debating both sides of complex social and criminal issues also helped ignited a spark in me and by the time I graduated I already knew my next steps. I researched the premier institutions for Master’s Degrees in forensic psychology and chose Marymount University in Arlington, Virginia. Here I re-upped my knowledge in statistical analysis techniques, and delved deeper into the psychology and law of criminal behaviour.

My first real experience in researching criminal behaviour and handling human rights was working with Washington DC’s detainees during my tenure at DC Prisoners Legal Services. Here, I used a mixture of face to face interviews, letter writing, using relevant federal and national databases as well as liaising with various professional bodies, courts and libraries for assistance with cases. My caseload was over a dozen incarcerated individuals from the federal penitentiaries in the central, south eastern and south central regions of the Bureau of Prisons. Besides working with individuals’ problems, I assisted attorneys working on institutional issues such as overcrowding and lack of proportionate prison officer coverage in large prisoner populations. My research and interviews helped to provide DC councilmember at large Philip Medelson with vital information about what was happening on-the-ground in the two Washington DC jails.

As a researcher at YouGov, I manage research and analysis of large projects for commercial, NGO and governmental bodies. This involves being able to communicate with various stakeholders and with the field teams to gather, aggregate and report on a wide variety of interests; focusing on household finance, media consumption and green issues. This involves consulting with our clients in designing the research and then presenting the results at the end. Between these two bookend events, I am actively involved in preparing the research, ensuring the field team collect a representative sample and then manipulating the data to determine what findings can be taken from the research. With some of my tracking studies, (for example the Household Finance Index released by MARKIT) it is important to ensure that changes in the data are consistent with expected regressions and to flag up through additional research why the data may be changing. Once we are happy with the results, we prepare our presentations and then use mailing lists and press releases to disseminate updates, changes and findings.

When I am not working, I participate at Chatham House, asking questions of incredibly insightful professionals like Zbigniew Brzezinskibri, Stanley McCrystal, Paddy Ashdown as well as powerful politicians, David Cameron, Ming Campbell and Pervez Musharraf, to name a few. I also like to travel and meet men and women of less public stature; Maday in Indonesia, Hakim in Egypt, Dominic in the Caribbean, Matt in Washington DC, Nicolas in France. This how I learn about the world and give colour to my analysis of it.

Posted in Uncategorized at April 1st, 2010. No Comments / Email This Post Email This Post .

In early 2010 Russia and NATO badboy France tentatively agreed a deal where an amphibious assault ship made in France would be sold to the Russian Navy. The ship and the ability to make copies of the ship, (transfer of technology) was agreed to be sold in the background of France and Europe’s continued frustration in selling military technology to a market saturated by American products. America is literally a no fly zone for EADS planes and France is having a hell of a time getting countries like Kuwait and Brazil to accept their perfectly good contender, the Raphael, which is going up against the faithful but old American F-18 Super Hornet. Because the French Government is so intimately tied to its arms industry this would be a great case of real politik: If we can’t sell to the Americans and they keep nicking our other customers then we’ll sell to the Russians!

This represented the first time that a NATO country would sell military technology to NATOs natural enemy. Later the deal hit a few snags where France wanted to water down the product and Russia wanted a fully operational weapons platform.

France has had a very close relationship with Russia even before Communism. France and Russia had very strong pacts defending themselves against Germany which was the global threat of the 19th and 20th Century. When Communism rose and Lenin Stalin and Trotsky were fighting against Russian imperialism, France served as a natural escape for much of the Romonov aristocracy. There they stayed in exile until this day, though some have returned meekly to Russia. During Germany’s second bout of belligerence Jews fled to Russia and France from Germany and despite the bad conditions for Semites in these countries they managed to establish themselves.

France has always cast a suspicious eye on the United States, even while American boys were dying to liberate it from the Germans. In my readings I think General DeGaulle suspected that America had reverse-imperialist intentions and hoped to colonize France! Whether this will ever be verified is moot, the Anglo-American connection has always been a sore spot. During the cold war too, France was antagonistic to NATO and was known for reaching out to Moscow.  With an eye to forming a third pole in the polarizing world, Charles De Gaulle left the NATO alliance in 1966 and managed to build his own nuclear power. France has now become a first class supplier of nuclear energy and sovereign owner of its own stockpile, something that Britain failed to do. When the Berlin wall and Iron Curtain fell, France rebuilt its ties with East Germany, and with Moscow. During the Georgia war of 2008, it was Sarkozy and France that stepped in and mediated between the arrogant Georgians and surly Russians. The invasion of Iraq was again, another place where Russia, France and Germany stood off against American intentions and English acquiescence. Together, France and Germany have risen as the true drivers of the EUs success while Britain limps behind, barely out of recession and only able to supply spies and tabloid headlines to this remarkable political experiment.

The laissez-faire, liberal and leftist lean of “le France” compels it into a natural embrace with a very leftist Russia. France’s revolutions and thinking produced many hard left socialist regimes including the one that existed in Moscow.

Will France sell a fully functional Mistral to Russia? I see no reason why not.

Posted in Politics at March 27th, 2010. No Comments / Email This Post Email This Post .