Masopher's Mind

When I first travelled to Egypt I was struck by both the vast amount of military that existed and the yawning maturity the country seemed to have. Growing up with some of the world’s oldest structures imbues its citizens with either a fervent sense of pride or a relaxed sense of ease depending on their personality, I suppose. Egypt in the 20th Century has been both. It was the birthplace of the Muslim Brotherhood and some of Osama bin Laden’s intellectual mentors and co-captains, it championed the Palestinian cause with 3 wars with Israel and it came to peace and a form of understanding with the Jewish State as well.

As in many Arab states, Israel is not as much a threat, as the vast populations of impoverished people who can be quickly lead to radicalism by power hungry imams. Egypt’s natural resources are perhaps the most valuable and happily do not revolve around oil: water and arable land. Besides gold and tourism, Egypt produces sugar for cola companies and strawberries for European markets. And though it remains a country run via a semi-dictatorship it has also remained stable and amicable with the major and regional powers.

Is Egypt a player? Indeed it is, and a big one at that. President Barak Obama of the USA knew this when he gave his speech in Cairo in June 2009. Other States, Iran, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia for example have always struggled to establish themselves as speaking for the region using menace and oil as their bargaining tools; Egypt on the other hand has mystery, beauty, legacy and maturity.

As Allah finally forces President Mubarak to release the reigns of power, Egypt faces a crossroads with not two but three divergent paths. Does it retake the path started by Nasser to dynamic democracy, does it continue in a pharaonic dictatorship or does it slip into populist disarray, the kind which breeds more upstart violent movements such as the ever troublesome Muslim brotherhood?

Here is an essay from the Wilson institute about the future of the middle east as influenced by Egypt.

http://www.wilsoncenter.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=wq.essay&essay_id=603733

Sans the fanfare and heated debate of the last referendum, the Irish were again asked to press the potentially disastrous button of European federalization. Way under public radar it flew, scarcely a mention in the news until the deed was done. Europe is now that much closer to being a true union. The dreams of Hitler, like the French and English tyrants before him are finally being realized. But what is the form of this chimera? Unlike the visions of dictators and monarchs of the past, there is not a single unquestioned ruler. If anything there are even more questions now that each must look to all and look to others on top of looking to themselves.

The Baltic states which were gobbled up quickly after being regurgitated from Russia’s communist constitution are prime example of how troublesome it is to invite poor relations to live under the same roof. The prolific investment that was poured into that region in the 90’s quickly turned into horrific deficits barely a decade later.
Lisbon is both a desirable and a commendable goal. Coordinating the efforts of former colonial powers so that they themselves don’t become colonies of the United States, China, India or Russia is a smart thing to do. Globalization, once a whisper and a conspiracy is now a roaring fact. Europe must unite or face becoming the next Africa. History already knows of a time when Africa, Asia and the Americas were empires and Europe a fringe group of scuffling technologically backward tribes!

But perhaps beyond that is the teleological ever-present United Earth. With ASEAN, The AU and Mercosur blocs being formed, the 6 inhabited continents face even more pressure to consolidate the artificial lines running through them. Philosophically, intellectually, financially, the groundwork is already laid. United Earth has been seeded and germinated in the collective unconscious and its roots nurtured by popular fiction, travel, technology and increased wealth has started to break down the psychological barriers.

It has started but it is far from done. Countries, people and leaders are parochial and suspicious. Navigating the path between total catastrophe and salvation;  between a backward past and a bright future; between fear and hope is tricky to say the least. Lisbon with all of its flaws represents the attempt by the heads of European countries to put the past differences behind them so that they can avoid marginalization and relegation in an uncertain future.

What kind of backward pretentious hypocritical farce allows unelected religious zealots to dictate the fate of a country? These archaic men in an archaic institution hold supreme power over the direction of the country and who dictate unopposed by any. Their word is law and they hold permanent tyrannical power no matter who gets elected. Despite their radical beliefs and dangerous religious ideologies they are held unopposed by democracy, unopposed by freedom, speaking as if their mouths utter the words of God. I am referring here to the United States Supreme court and the British House of Lords.

Iran’s main problems are isolation and ambition, not its politics. There are far more undemocratic systems actively supported and traded with so let’s not fool ourselves. The empire and former empire pushing for regime change are both run in essence by similar mixes of permanent (stable?) rule alongside elected officials and it is ridiculous to think that removing the Ayotollah, Imams and clerics would do anything but destabilize and weaken the Persian people. But that is perhaps exactly what is desired: To turn another country into a mix of junta, oligarchy and dictatorship; so that peacemakers and “peacekeepers” have jobs and markets to export their vile liberal socialism, or murderous capitalism to.

But Iran cannot end its isolation until its people signal that moderation and tit-for-tat will be the language that they come to the bargaining table with. Unfortunately foot in mouth, tainted Ahmedinejad will be the spokesman. His “anti-semetism” and “nuclear bomb threats” have been sewn and planted in the fertile soil of the global imagination and will not be easy to get uproot. Iran’s support for Hezbollah and reported supporting of militants in Oman and Yemen also will be permanent black marks on their record. The intelligence leading to the latter is in Masopher’s mind, questionable, but it is safe to say Iran is by no means benign in its regional and global aspirations.

There is little room at the top for Iran. The US, UK, Western Europe, Russia, China, Japan, they are jealously guarding their military might and global influence and advantages. For a “middle eastern” country with no “sponsor” to join the ranks it is unthinkable. That is why “regime change” quickly comes to peoples lips; that is why Iran is one of the usual suspects behind any orchestrated violence throughout the world: it is not Iran’s politics or religion that must be put down, it is its’ ambition.