Masopher's Mind

The “abandonment” of Pakistan and Afghanistan is a common and painful theme in his mind. So are fates of the militants who are now operating against India. Pakistan will not do to the Lashkar-i-Tayyaba and other groups what the USA did to the 25 thousand Mujahadeen the Afghans and to Pakistan. His country will not ditch them just because the world has become once again interested in the region. He knows first hand that one cannot turn yesterday’s heroes into today’s villains.

Pervez Musharraf is methodical in his summary of the security situation in Pakistan. We are where we are because at the end of the cold war, the funding coming from the United States and Saudi Arabia abruptly ceased and thousands of hardened fighters were all of a sudden left with nothing to do.

I think that the ISI and Pakistan Military also turned their attention and newly learned skills to India and Kashmir, building up its own insurgency for low level conflicts while at the same time obtaining and developing nuclear weapons to protect its existential interests.

Back in Afghanistan, the ethnic Pastun populations fell into conflict, gelling loosely around Mullah Omar’s brutal Taliban group and warring against the ethnic Uzbeks, Hazaras, Tajiks and minority groups which formed a Northern Alliance.

Among the Taliban and warlords, the newly formed Al Qaeda spoiling for trouble began training disaffected youth who may have missed the great jihad against the Soviets.

Once Al Qaeda succeeded on 9/11/2001, Iran and the United States assisted the Northern Alliance to disperse the Taliban Pashtun but failed to sufficiently integrate or recognize the non-Taliban Pashtun.

The disaffected Afghans along with Mullah Omar eventually regrouped from Waziristan in Pakistan. With help from their cousins across the loosely defined border, the Taliban pushed back in 2003 until the present, funding their war with opium.

Musharraf worries about simultaneous rising extremism in Pakistan, India and Afghanistan. A grassroots unity of extremists where politicians have failed. He believes that Pakistan should have done more to placate, infiltrate and influence the Taliban and their fierce example is leading the poor, disaffected youth in the three countries to radicalize and talibanize.

He continues to nurse the old Indian chestnut. Nuclear India means Pakistan will follow suite and every tit of India will be answered by a tat from Pakistan. He seems to want an independent self governing Kashmir and he believes that President Singh and he were about to make important breakthroughs just Musharraf lost power in 2008. India’s continued action in Kashmir and Afghanistan courtesy of India’s RAW agency is heavily resented, as is the 25 division of infantry, 3 armoured and 3 motorized divisions along with the forward air bases on India’s western border. India will always be a threat, even when terrorists are the main threat.

Musharraf is military to the core. He speaks of negotiating from “a position of strength”, that “quitting is not an option”, wants to “saturate the area with strength”, by pursuing an “effect related” strategy, instead of a “time related” strategy, to “defeat the centre of gravity”; he claims to be “a man for peace” but his background as “a man of war” is all too plain.

In February 2010, I see that Musharraf wants to get back into power (though in a legitimate way this time). He commands a room but he would love to command even more. He knows that the Pakistan leadership is weak though he does not say so. He envisions reuniting “in thought and action”, the military, the bureaucracy and political parts of government (though not necessarily in the being of one person). Peace in Asia, the Middle East and perhaps the world needs “leadership decisions”, which are based on sincerity, flexibility and boldness. Musharraf believes he is that leader.

There is sense of impending danger in the analyst world. Both bin Laden and his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri (20th March, 24 March) have recently released statements urging attacks. The attacks themselves may not be al-Qaeda originated but undeniably al-Qaeda complicit and with foreknowledge. Al-Qaeda’s failure to take hold in Iraq and with the US and allied occupations beginning to wrap up and wind down, Pakistan and Palestine are the weakest targets, Pakistan being the more accessible. The Jamestown foundation’s Imtiaz Ali suspects that Paki-Afgani insurgents are preparing for IED and suicide belt coordinated mass attacks. The suspected faction, “The Haqqani Network”, are soviet era Mujadeen who have been embroiled in the Taliban and post 9/11 struggle. Their tribal area has come under rocket attack from “unknown origin”, most likely US forces in Afghanistan or the Pakistani military. They now feel a need to make a dramatic political statement which in that part of the world unfortunately involves extreme violence.

Osama bin Laden’s ‘warnings’ usually indicate a high probability of attacks. For both al-Qaeda leaders to rush out statements, the terrorist organization indicates a high desire to be tied into an event which they have some foreknowledge of. While Pakistan’s Sharif has probably sent word of his fidelity to Islam, the thoroughly Westernized and crooked Zardari will have a hard time convincing extremists that a) he won’t kowtow to the will of the US and b) he won’t resume pilfering the aid sent. Musharraf of the other hand has lost almost all leverage now that Western, extremist and Pakistani factions have turned their back on him. That he is not now begging bread on the streets indicates that he still commands military support and may be taking the dual role of scapegoat and big dog in this failed states problematic fight against extremism. This transition period is an opportunity for radicals and militants to create mass casualties.
Pakistan’s “victory over dictatorship” is likely to be punctuated with several large scale or a massive scale attack from disaffected tribal factions. Al-Qaeda is promoting these events to shore up their flagging numbers and perception among fellow Muslims.

Reference:
Imtiaz Ali, The Haqqani Network and Cross-Border Terrorism in Afghanistan, Terrorism Monitor, The Jamestown Foundation March 24 2008.

Pakistan stumbles along the road to democracy as the elections that were predicted by Opposition to be flawed and filled with irregularities…were won by the Opposition! Now that was a surprise! Here too the PPP leadership threatened regional security by wanting to “take it to the streets” if they did not get their way. The Judiciary still is not getting its chance to flex its muscles. With Musharraf it was easy to befuddle the military man with talk of constitution. Now with both Sharif and the not-better half of Bhutto at the reigns one could expect a quick return to Tribalism, Sharia law and good old fashioned beheadings so that the constant flow of bombers in Pakistan may be curtailed. Law and democracy; two things highly incompatible with Pakistani way of life will not be any time soon. Here too a power sharing deal might be useful, so that everyone benefits from the misappropriated aid, drug money and oil pipeline deals. And of course (for I don’t want to be cynical) all three men do what the best for their failed state. Political enemies should be last on their agenda. Defeated though he is by his own attempts at legitimacy, Musharraf is still a powerful force in Pakistan. He is trusted in the military. Powerful also in that he can safely draw the fire of the judiciary and militants while Saudi backed Sharif and (hopefully still) US and UK backed Zardari play power games to gain influence over the region. With India happily growing to the East and Pashtun-Taliban sliding in from the South and West, there is something worth fighting for and that is peace.