Masopher's Mind

Masopher has always indicated that Iran should have been consulted in both Iraqi and Afghan campaigns. It is no great stretch of imagination that Iran becomes the net winner of Americas wars on both sides of the Persian pariah. With American Troops and radicals dying Iran is literally eating the cake of security and enjoying the rise of its relative regional strength with only the impotent Israeli threat and notional Saudi counterbalance to hinder its ascent. While it is true Israel could exercise a rumoured nuclear option and it is true that the house of Saud has bought more weapons than Europe, Weapons are only good for war and Iran is not at war with any of these. Only Saddam’s Iraq and the USA remained a threat to Iran but a Shia led state and an erstwhile occupied America means that only a suicidal and imbalanced Jerusalem and a panic stricken Riyadh can quash Iran’s ambition. Jerusalem is not suicidal nor is it imbalanced and Riyadh is in no panic. Israel’s strength (bombing convoys in Syria and unguarded facilities in Iraq) is good in striking at the hidden but its weakness is striking at the most obvious. Any attack on Iran would draw the region into war and end in the obliteration of the Jewish state. The Saudis will not attack a fellow Islamic nation either with its integrity so heavily scrutinized by elements within its own borders.
How it seems to be falling out, is that Iran will be consulted on Afghanistan. Yes there are Iranian spies in Afghanistan, and yes there are a lot of suitably hawkish and misinformed generals in the Obama administration and yes there is a Jewish lobby and friendship at stake, but the truth is Iran wants a peaceful drug free nation to its east. Iran provided vital information to the Bush Administration when the Taliban was beaten the first time and by precedent Iran will assist the Obama administration in beating the Taliban again. Tehran will try to get one up on the US but this is no different from the advantages and submissions required by the administration. Tehran will put its foot in its mouth. 30 years of isolation and Russian influence does that to a country. But there will be no monumental collapse of regime in Iran, no dramatic fall of some wall. Iran is addicted to misery however. Being the sometimes sulky, sometimes roaring Persians has been a role 30 years in the making. With Sunni, Taliban and Jewish threats on all sides Iran probably likes to feel like the poor persecuted Persians. The Taliban are funded by the worlds opium and heroin addiction, by smuggling and peddling drugs to Iranian, European and American users the radicals in Afghanistan-Pakistan earn money to run Madrassas, compensate the families of suicide bombers and buy black market weapons and ammunition. Iran is a vital land route to the west via Turkey. The more dope that the Taliban push, the more AK’s IUDs and poor Afghans can be bought. Iran’s has a drug problems. It is addiction to pain and pain killer it is addicted to being the fringes of global society. Iran’s drug problem needs to be solved.